Week Ending June 29, 2024
Durable Goods Orders Edge Higher
In May 2024, new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods increased by 0.1% month-over-month. This follows a downwardly revised 0.2% rise in April and surpasses market expectations, which had predicted a 0.1% decline. This marks the fourth consecutive month of growth in durable goods orders, albeit at a slow pace.
GDP Growth Positive But Moderate
In the first quarter of 2024, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.4%, a slight increase from the second estimate of 1.3%. However, this print still reflects the slowest growth since the economic contractions in the first half of 2022.
Core PCE Price Index MoM Prints as Expected, Inflation Continues to Ease
In May 2024, the U.S. core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure for underlying inflation, rose by 0.1% from the previous month. This print is the smallest increase since November 2023. The prior three months all registered 0.3% rises, so the May data point is blatantly softer. Additionally, the headline gauge did not increase for the first time this year. On an annual basis, core PCE inflation slowed to 2.6% in May, compared to 2.8% in the previous period.
Personal Income Increases
In May 2024, U.S. personal income increased by 0.5% from the previous month, reaching $23.924 trillion. This is an acceleration from the 0.3% rise observed in the prior month and exceeds market forecasts of a 0.4% increase.
Personal Spending Increases
In May 2024, personal spending in the United States rose by 0.2% from the previous month, falling short of market expectations, which had predicted a 0.3% increase.
SPX Technical Analysis
SPX finished the first half of 2024 up by 14.48%. The index shrugged off a mild dip in May and finished the quarter and half with positive returns during every week in June. As can be seen below, there are multiple upwardly sloping trendlines as well as the 50 and 100 day moving averages to support any SPX pullbacks heading into the second half of 2024. Of mild concern when considering SPX technical analysis for the week just passed is the bearish two bar pattern created on Thursday and Friday with strong volume. When such two bar patterns have occurred in SPX in the recent past, the following week's trading tended to be downward. If SPX would pull back to either of the upwardly sloping support trendlines around 5400, a nice entry point could be had.
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