SPX Technical Analysis and Economic Trends

Week Ending July 5, 2024

Manufacturing PMI Declines

In June 2024, the ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48.5 from 48.7 in May, falling short of the forecasted 49.1.

Job Openings Rise

In May 2024, the number of job openings increased by 221,000 from the previous month, reaching 8.140 million and surpassing the market consensus of 7.91 million.

Services PMI Declines Sharply

In June 2024, the ISM Services PMI in the U.S. fell sharply to 48.8, marking the steepest contraction since April 2020. This was significantly below market expectations of 52.5 and a decline from 53.8 in May.

Unemployment Rate Continues Higher

In June 2024, the U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs, slightly below the downwardly revised 218,000 jobs added in May but above the forecast of 190,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%, the highest level since November 2021.

SPX Technical Analysis

Megacap names , especially Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla, had a great week heading into the July 4 holiday. All posted strong gains above 2.5% over four days of trading. As NVDA found its footing on an upwardly sloping trendline, SPX was able to rally to a fresh high by the end of the week. Given the newfound support for NVDA on an upwardly sloping trendline (second chart below), SPX has its customary fuel to go even higher.

SPX had a great holiday shortened week. As NVDA found its footing, SPX was able to rally through each trading session to a fresh all time high.

Starting on Monday, NVDA found support from a relatively short trendline. Although this support line only began in April 2024, it has been touched and defined five times prior to this week's newfound support.

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